It’s an interesting time to be a journalist, especially a financial journalist, given the mayhem of the past two years. Political and economic poles are slowly beginning to shift eastwards (ask anyone at Davos) and market analysts and TV talking heads have stopped worrying about the possibility of systemic bank failure and are now looking at sovereign default.

The debt-laden books of countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and even Japan are all being pored over by ratings agencies and bank risk bosses, even as BRIC countries of the ‘New World Order’ are being asked to keep bailing out the ‘Olde World Order’ of Europe and the US. One would hope that the Asian tiger states of the 1990s have learned their lessons from the 1997 crisis, but I wouldn’t want to bet on that, at least not in the medium term.

History shows that the herd-like mentality always manifests itself during booms and busts. It is fight or flight, feast or famine etc etc. Let’s hope they don’t get too confident in their ability to save the world. They are, after all, emerging markets and their socio-economic structures are not as solid as in more developed countries. I keep hearing lots of stuff about lots of hiring by private banks for Asian locations, which is not surprising, given that the western wealthies are smaller in number now.

There is a lot of concern in the US, the UK and Switzerland that banks could be driven out by overzealous regulators and politicians who are threatening to introduce reforms which could hit the bottom line and force them to move certain sections of their business overseas.

UBS and Credit Suisse are rumoured to be threatening to leave the country if the Central Bank forces them to become holding companies, while the UK is upsetting the big shots with its plans to tax bonuses. President Obama’s plans to limit the size and trading activity of the biggest banks and put restrictions on propriety trading seems to be worrying the banking big shots more than anything else.

Some of the banks in the US and the UK have been muttering about moving to Switzerland, but are they really serious? Or it is just the usual games of brinkmanship? And where will UBS and Credit Suisse go, if they leave Switzerland? It worth remembering (to use a Middle Eastern press release cliché) that relocating hundreds of high-salary employees (and their families) to another country is easier said than done and will take years to sort out.

The Middle East and North Africa region fares no better. Oil prices have stayed above $70 a barrel, which has kept almost everyone happy, although a rash of scandals, falling real estate prices, disagreement over a single currency and continued tensions with Iran mean that investors still regard the region as a bit risky. The US has been selling a lot of heavy weapons to Arabian Gulf countries of late and that will not be taken as a good sign by war-wary and war-weary investors, unless they are arms dealers.

It could be pure and simple capitalism at work. The arms trade is a very profitable business and Iran is not the only Middle Eastern country Arabian Gulf states have difficult relations with. Israel has a lot of nasty explosive toys and its willingness to bomb places like Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Iran without warning does not endear it to many in the Middle East and well beyond. Escalation is the key word here.

We are on the cusp of great change. Let’s hope that the masters of the universe avoid taking the short-term populist view with their actions and leave the world in a better state than it is now.  To paraphrase the Obama campaign, it should be ‘change we can believe in’, not change we are afraid of.