Middle East growth expected to reach 3.5 per cent this year
Six themes are expected to shape this year’s Middle East economic outlook, research conducted by Ziad Daoud, Chief Middle East Economist, Bloomberg Economics, has found.
Commenting on his latest research piece, Daoud said that oil and geopolitics have always dominated Middle Eastern economic cycles. “In 2017, growth underperformed the rest of the world as both factors turned unfavourable. A recovery is coming in 2018, but there are risks associated with an escalation of geopolitical tensions.”
The six themes Bloomberg Economics expects to shape the region’s outlook in 2018 are:
· Faster growth, which is expected to accelerate from 2.8 per cent in 2017 to 3.5 per cent in 2018
· Geopolitical tensions and internal political landscapes will continue to influence the region’s economies
· Continued external debt issuance, particularly from the GCC
· Gulf pegs to the dollar are expected to remain this year
· Growth in Egypt, which should accelerate above five per cent for the first time since November 2016
· Less accommodative policy in Turkey, with expected withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and further rate hikes. This could help lower inflation and stabilise the currency.